Oil Shock Simulator

IO-NK Hybrid Model · Blanchard-Kahn two-state solver · 9 economies · 20-quarter horizon

OPEC+ Supply Cut
🇺🇸 United States · Coordinated production cut — moderate supply shock.
Shock +40%Persistence 0.85CB 1.50 (Neutral)IO 1.32xω=0.15
Economy
Scenario Preset
Parameters
Oil Shock (%)40%
Persistence (ρ)0.85
AR(1) decay rate
IO Multiplier1.32x
Leontief amplification
NKPC Backward (ω)0.15
Backward-looking Phillips curve weight
CB Policy Response
Taylor φπ1.50
Direction
Peak CPI
+1.78
pp ann.
Peak PCE
+1.35
pp ann.
Peak GDP
-0.35
pp gap
Peak FFR
+1.33
pp ann.
Mode
Frequency
United States: ω=0.15 (mild backward-looking component; post-calibration).
IO source: BEA 2022 IO Table · Leontief total requirements
bπ = 0.1575
Source: IO-NK Model · Headline CPI & PCE · pp above baseline · annualized
Source: IO-NK Model · Additive: direct + monetary = total
Source: IO-NK Model · Taylor rule: φπ=1.50, φy=0.5
Source: IO-NK Model · Net petroleum export revenue · % GDP · US net exporter since 2020